ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters Q4 2026 Results Released

Survey Overview and Release Date

The European Central Bank published the results of the Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2026 on 30 October 2026. The survey was conducted between 2 and 7 October 2026, with 52 responses received from experts affiliated with financial and non-financial institutions based in Europe. The survey gathers expectations for inflation, real GDP growth, and unemployment in the euro area for several horizons, along with quantitative assessments of uncertainty and other variables such as the ECB deposit facility rate, exchange rates, oil prices, wages, and the output gap. The results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or its staff.

The release date of 30 October 2026 is confirmed in the official press release. The survey is conducted quarterly, and the next Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections are scheduled for publication on 18 December 2026. The survey report and detailed data are available via the ECB’s website and Data Portal.

Sources: European Central Bank: Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2026 European Central Bank: policy or statistical methodology background

Headline and Core Inflation Expectations

Respondents’ expectations for headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), stood at 3.0% for 2026, 2.6% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028. Compared with the previous survey round (Q3 2026), these figures were revised up by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points for 2026 and 2027 respectively, while the 2028 expectation remained unchanged. Longer-term inflation expectations for 2031 remained anchored at 2.0% for both headline and core inflation.

Core inflation (HICP excluding energy and food) was expected to be 2.4% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027, and 2.2% in 2028, with longer-term expectations at 2.0%. Revisions from the previous survey showed no change for 2026, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points for 2027, and 0.1 percentage points for 2028. The special question on the impact of the war in the Middle East indicated that additional energy price shock effects are mainly expected for 2027, with second-round effects expected to remain limited.

Sources: European Central Bank: Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2026 European Central Bank: policy or statistical methodology background

Real GDP Growth and Unemployment Expectations

Respondents expected real GDP growth of 1.0% in 2026 and 1.3% in both 2027 and 2028. These expectations were revised up by 0.4 percentage points for 2026 and by 0.1 percentage points for 2027 compared with the previous survey, while the 2028 figure remained unchanged. Longer-term growth expectations for 2031 were revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3%. The balance of risks for real GDP growth was assessed as tilted somewhat to the downside for all horizons.

Unemployment rate expectations were slightly higher for 2026 at 6.4%, before declining gradually to 6.3% in 2027, 6.2% in 2028, and 6.1% in the longer term (2031). Compared with the previous survey, the 2026 expectation was revised up by 0.1 percentage points, while expectations for 2027, 2028, and the longer term remained unchanged. The unemployment rate is defined as a percentage of the labour force.

Sources: European Central Bank: Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2026 European Central Bank: policy or statistical methodology background

Wage Growth and Risk Assessments

Wage growth expectations were 3.3% for 2026, 3.1% for 2027, 2.8% for 2028, and 2.7% for the longer term (2031). Revisions from the previous survey showed an increase of 0.1 percentage points for both 2026 and 2027, no change for 2028, and a downward revision of 0.2 percentage points for the longer term. These figures reflect respondents’ quantitative assessments of nominal wage developments across the survey horizons.

The balance of risks for inflation was assessed as tilted to the upside for the 2026–2028 period, but more balanced for longer horizons. The survey results include a quantitative assessment of uncertainty surrounding the expectations, though specific confidence intervals or probability distributions are not detailed in the press release. The ECB’s monetary policy strategy defines price stability as 2% inflation over the medium term, measured by HICP, with symmetric deviations considered equally undesirable.

Sources: European Central Bank: Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2026 European Central Bank: policy or statistical methodology background

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